Links between rural development and crime

Over the past few years, metropolitan crime has fallen significantly in the United States while nonmetropolitan crime has continued to increase. This paper examines nonmetropolitan crime during the period 1977-1995, and describes its spatial dynamics and changing characteristics. The paper outlines standard economic, sociological, and regional science approaches to explaining geographical variation in crime and reviews literature concerned with causes of nonmetropolitan crime. Eight general categories of causal factors are identified, including: (1) urbanization, (2) residential mobility, (3) industry and enterprises, (4) economic conditions, (5) transportation system, (6) demographics, (7) culture and climate, and (8) law enforcement. The role of these factors in nonmetropolitan crime variation is investigated using regression analysis for a cross-section of 1,706 counties. This analysis shows that many variables commonly connected with "economic development" are associated with nonmetropolitan crime. The paper concludes by recommending that planners anticipate social problems that may be aggravated by popular rural economic development policies, such as tourism, retirement communities, highways, and service or trade sector development. Acknowledgement: The author would like to thank Brian Cushing of West Virginia University, anonymous referees, and the inmates enrolled in the author’s fall 1997 elements of statistics class at the Federal Correctional Institution in Cumberland, Maryland, for helpful comments on this paper.